【國立臺灣大學 109學年度畢業典禮 校長致詞】
Opening Remarks, National Taiwan University Commencement 2021
President Dr. Chung-Ming Kuan
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各位師長同仁,各位畢業同學以及家長們,歡迎大家參加 109 學年度的線上畢業典禮。
去年新冠疫情初起,學校雖仍舉辦實體的畢業典禮,但規模大為縮小,許多師生和家長均以無法參加典禮為憾。今年初臺灣的疫情持續穩定,大家原本期待今年畢業典禮能按照往年方式辦理。不料五月時疫情急轉直下,臺北市疫情警戒程度提高,我們於是推遲畢業典禮,並改以線上方式進行。這也是臺大首次以線上方式舉辦畢業典禮。
隨著疫情發展,線上活動如今已成為生活中的新常態。我們雖逐漸習慣線上教學,線上會議,線上交流,線上購物訂餐等,但連期待了四年的畢業典禮也只能在線上參加,許多同學與家長們難免失望。為此,學務處與許多同學攜手,精心策劃了今天這場特殊的線上畢業典禮,希望能讓大家留下不一樣,但仍美好的記憶。
因為新冠疫情,有些同學會抱怨:這樣大的疫情怎麼就正好被我們在畢業時碰上了?也有些同學則樂觀的想,一旦有了疫苗,疫情得到控制,世界最終還是會回到以前的軌道,大家仍可以過著平穩安定的日子。
然而這個世界從不曾平靜。今年畢業的同學多數出生於1999 年,那正是規模達 7.3 的 921 大地震發生的那一年。時隔四年,亞洲(包括臺灣)爆發了罕見的急性呼吸道感染病 SARS。不過五年之後,源自美國的金融海嘯席捲全球,影響全世界經濟數年之久。2009 更是不平靜的一年,臺灣出現莫拉克風災,造成慘重傷亡;全球則爆發了 H1N1 流感大流行,數十萬人因此死亡。這些當時都曾被認為是數十年(甚至百年)一遇的重大災難。
回顧二十多年來的這些事件(這還僅僅是一部份與臺灣相關的事件),我們就會發現:巨大的天災人禍,過去曾頻繁出現,未來應該也不會少見。
當然,新冠疫情的影響範圍遠超過 SARS 與 H1N1 流感,對世界的衝擊則更大於金融海嘯。近代能與這次疫情相比的是一百年前 (1918-1920) 的全球流感大流行;據後來估計,當時全世界人口三分之一染疫,約有五千萬人因此不幸喪生。
那次流感爆發時正值第一次世界大戰末期,對當時的德軍主力造成嚴重打擊。而後疫情時代,戰敗的德國被列強宰割,奧匈帝國及奧圖曼帝國亦隨之瓦解,徹底改變了舊的國際秩序,也為後來的世局(從歐陸,到中東和亞洲)埋下許多不安定的種子。
這次新冠疫情並未伴隨著世界大戰,但出現在國際強權針鋒相對,世界產業供應鏈重整的關鍵時刻;後疫情時代因此充滿不確定性。而重組後的國際政經秩序,我不知道那會是一個「美好或不美好的新世界」*,但它就是大家必須面對的世界。那裡將充滿挑戰和機會,如何善用所學回應挑戰,如何從機會中脫穎而出,都是大家新的功課。這些功課沒有標準答案,你們必須自己解答,自己審閱答案。
我也希望利用這個機會提醒同學們,對於正在醫療前線奮戰的眾多醫護人員,其中包括了許多學校師長與大家的學長姐們,我們一定要心存感念。當疫情大浪襲來時,他們勇往直前,力挽狂瀾,不僅保護病人,也捍衛著臺灣社會。他們是真正的英雄。只要大家共同努力,疫情終會過去,我們一定會贏得抗疫的最後勝利。
最後,我謹代表所有老師和行政主管,向所有畢業同學們表達最深切的祝福,也恭喜辛苦多年的家長們。敬祝大家未來一切順利,身體健康
最後我還想講幾句話。我記得我看過一篇外國人寫的文章,他說他在臺灣多年,注意到臺灣有個很奇怪的習慣,朋友分手時都常常會說:「要小心哦」。我看到這篇文章的時候,也突然心有所感;多年來我媽媽每次看到我出門時會跟我講這句話,而後來我跟自己的小孩,也會講這樣的話。所以在畢業典禮這個時刻,我敬祝大家未來一切順利,身體健康,大家都要小心哦!
2021.6.26
*「美好新世界」(Brave New World) due to A. Huxley
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==============================
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When the COVID-19 pandemic began last year, NTU was still able to hold graduation ceremonies in person but on a much smaller scale and with the absence of many faculty members, students, and parents. Earlier this year, we were hoping to gather for a traditional commencement. But the sudden outbreak in May had forced Taipei City to raise its epidemic alert level. So we postponed the Commencement and made the decision to hold the ceremony virtually. This is the first virtual Commencement in NTU history.
To our faculty, new graduates, and parents, welcome to the National Taiwan University’s Commencement celebration for the Class of 2021.
As the pandemic unfolds, digital is the new normal. While we gradually adapt to online learning, virtual meetings, social media, online shopping, and food delivery, it is inescapably disappointing for many students and parents to have to celebrate the achievements of our graduates this way after anticipating this event for four years. And because of this, the Office of Student Affairs has teamed up with the graduates to ensure that this unique virtual Commencement is a moment that everyone will remember fondly in the future.
Some of you may ask, "why does this happen just when we are graduation?" And some of you may think optimistically that once the vaccines are available and the pandemic is contained, the world will be back to normal, and that we will all live peacefully.
But the world has never been peaceful. Most of the graduates this year were born in 1999, when the magnitude 7.3 earthquake happened on September 21. Four years after, SARS broke out in Asia, including Taiwan. Within another 5 years, the financial crisis, originated in the United States, affected global economies for years. In 2009, Typhoon Morakot landed and caused severe casualties in Taiwan; the H1N1 flu pandemic took hundreds of thousands of lives. These disasters were, at the time, seen as rare catastrophes that would only take place once every few decades, or even centuries.
Looking back to the past 20 years, we’d notice that, even just in Taiwan, catastrophes have never been in short supply. And they will probably never be in the future either.
Of course, the effect of COVID is far beyond SARS and H1N1, and its impact is greater than the financial crises. What came close was the Spanish flu that took place a century ago (1918-1920), when, according to estimation, one-third of the global population was infected and about 50 million people died.
The influenza pandemic outbreak took place at the end of WWI and hit the German military especially hard. And after the pandemic, Germany was forced to cede its territories to the great powers. What followed was the fall of the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman Empires. The series of events reset the international order and formed the settings for many conflicts in the years to come.
While COVID did not break out during a world war, it came at a critical time when great powers bicker and the global supply chains face a reform. The post-pandemic ear is therefore full of uncertainty. I don’t know whether it’d be a "Brave New World"* once the international political and economic orders are reshuffled. But it will be a world we have to live in. There will be many challenges and opportunities, and it will be our new task to utilize what we have learned to tackle challenges and grasp opportunities. Unlike any standardize
d test, you will have to answer and grade the answers yourselves.
I also want to use this opportunity to remind the graduates, that we must have appreciation and gratitude for the healthcare workers who are on the frontlines fighting. Many of them are our faculty members and alums. When the waves of the pandemic hit, they stood up to save lives and protect Taiwan’s society. They are true heroes. As long as we work together, we will weather the crisis and win this battle.
Finally, on behalf of the faculty and management, I send you our deepest best wishes. And congratulations to the parents and families who have supported the graduates for years. I wish you success and good health.
One final thing, I remember reading an article by a foreign writer who said he had lived in Taiwan for years and had noticed that Taiwanese people have a strange habit of saying "be careful" when they part ways. When I read the article, this resonates with me from the heart. For years, my mother would say the same thing whenever I am leaving the house. Now I say the same thing to my children, too. So at this Commencement ceremony, I wish everyone great success in the future, good health, and "be careful."
2021.6.26
*「美好新世界」(Brave New World) due to A. Huxley
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詳見:
https://www.facebook.com/NTUCommencement/posts/2718144868475937
.
#臺灣大學 #畢業典禮 #NTUCommencement2021 #校長致詞
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Continue ReadingLaos debt crisis case study / by investment man
In the past, we may hear about the debts crisis of many countries.
But one country that many people may not have thought about is Laos.
Did you know Laos is currently facing a high-rise debt problem?
So that I can't pay creditors in time.
How does this impact on Laos?
Investment man will tell you about it.
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Helping to update the situation in video article formats
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Laos People's Democracy Republic
There are 236,800 square kilometers.
Think about half of Thailand's area.
2019 Laos worth GDP is 603,000 million baht. It's the world's number 112
At the moment, Laos population is around 7.1 million people and the average income per capita. The population is 85,000 baht per year, which is lower than many Asian countries.
But if I look back, I will see that.
During 2010-2019, Laos had an estimated GDP growth rate of 7 %
Increase the average income per capita of Laos people in the last 10 years.
However, Laos's economic growth.
Followed by the debt burden of public sector from loans to projects.
And when the COVID-19 outbreak occurred.
It makes the public sector lower income than before
Both proceeds from exports, taxation and tourism sector
Make the government more income to spend on essentials with more loans.
When this happens, the proportion of public debt to GDP in Laos has risen to the highest in 13 years.
Year 2010 Laos's public debt burden is equal to 115,000 million Baht. Considering 49 % of GDP.
Year 2020 Laos's public debt burden is equal to 393,000 million Baht. Considering 65 % of GDP.
With debt burden increasing, while Laos's international reserves is reduced to just 26,000 million baht, making Laos's financial status worrisome.
Also, international reserves decrease.
Investors lack of faith in Laos also follow.
To this place, many people may wonder what the previous Laos government loaned to do.
What has caused public debt in recent years to rise dramatically?
Before answering this question
Let's understand the geographical characteristics of Laos first.
Even if Laos is a country without a way out to sea.
But most areas are mountainous and plateau districts.
Which constitutes many important rivers.
By terrain, this looks like 3 in 4 of the total Laos area.
When it's like this, it makes Laos.
Potential to produce electricity with water energy.
Laos government has therefore placed the country's status as ′′ Battery of Asia
And lots of loan to push the building of water power dams.
In addition, Laos also values and supports China's One Belt One Road project.
This will make Laos easier to connect with other countries in the region.
Specifically, Laos-China railway line project worth more than 187,000 million Baht.
I would have guessed it by now
The person who gives loan to Laos most is ′′ China ′′
Only debt that Laos government borrowed from China
Worth up to 271,000 million baht.
This amount of money is over 45 % of Laos GDP.
When the COVID-19 outbreak occurred.
Poor that Laos may not be able to pay back the debt on schedule.
The Laos government therefore has to negotiate with the Chinese government as a major creditor.
To restructure the loan debt
One of the deals between Laos and Chinese government.
Well, Laos Government has to sell shares of Electricity Wholesale Business of Laos (EDL) which is Laos's Electricity Enterprise.
Give to China Southern Power Grid that is the major electrical enterprise of Chinese government.
From this story, I will see.
Excessive debt is high risk.
If one day can't pay back the debt on schedule
We may have to exchange with the loss of our important debtor to the creditor.
Like in this case of Laos..
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Helping to update the situation in video article formats
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References
-https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/laos-stumbles-under-rising-chinese-debt-burden/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
-https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Laos/reserves_monthly/
-https://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/laos
-https://www.ft.com/content/dc3f5981-4fd9-4e3a-9824-5b9ddf70735e?sharetype=blocked
-https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/analysts-rising-debt-burden-could-make-laos-more-reliant-china
-https://data.worldbank.org/country/LA
-http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-08/07/c_139273117.htm
-https://tradingeconomics.com/laos/government-debt-to-gdp
-https://thailandtribune.com/financially-strapped-laos-partners-with-chinese-company-to-manage-power-grid/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_du_LaosTranslated
economic impact of financial crisis 在 堅離地城:沈旭暉國際生活台 Simon's Glos World Facebook 的最佳解答
【#TheDiplomat🌍】難得The Diplomat讀者對香港有興趣:
The series of iron-fisted moves last month in Hong Kong may seem sudden to international observers: Hong Kong government’s earlier reinterpretation of the China-Hong Kong relationship, the election of a pro-Beijing legislator to be a Legislative Council chair through a controversial mechanism, and Beijing’s recent decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The desire to bring Hong Kong under the banner of “one country, one system” is not impulsive. Quite the contrary, it’s a calculated campaign to initiate a so-called “second reunification with Hong Kong” — since the first reunification after the handover, using a lenient soft-power approach, has supposedly failed.
What are Beijing’s calculations that motivate this bold campaign now? And more important, will the campaign work?
While I remain highly skeptical of solely applying the realist framework to study Hong Kong, Beijing’s mentality is nonetheless entirely realism-driven. It is therefore essential to use this lens to understand more of their thoughts.
COVID-19: A Golden Opportunity on the International Stage?
To start with, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have created an ideal backdrop for Beijing to push forward its iron-fisted policy toward Hong Kong. The West has been devastated by the pandemic, more so than China, and has been slower to recover economically. Instead of decoupling from China, Beijing thinks the West is desperate for an influx of Chinese capital and markets. This notion encourages Beijing to pursue brinkmanship, in the form of confrontative “wolf warrior diplomacy,” its escalation of sharp power, and, most recently, Hong Kong’s national security law. As long as the international community does not put their condemnation into action, Beijing will keep pushing the envelope.
Beijing is convinced that the chambers of commerce representing other countries in Hong Kong will always place profits above all else as long as the national security law does not threaten them. Business deals struck at the crucial moment can entice foreign businesses to use their lobby teams in their home countries in Beijing’s favor.
Although anti-China sentiment has become more mainstream, Beijing, the major beneficiary of globalization in the past two decades, has tied its destiny with various elites internationally. These “friends of China” can be swayed to safeguard Beijing’s interests, but the up-and-coming leaders in many countries look less friendly. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Beijing to act is closing before the new value-driven generation comes to power.
The Lack of Incentive Behind the U.S. and U.K.’s Escalating Rhetoric
While U.S. politicians from left to right are vocal against China, their ultimate goal, Beijing believes, is to win votes in the November election. They would hence avoid hurting the interest groups they represent and go easy on actions aiming to punish China, such as denying Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs territory, sanctioning Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or escalating the trade war.
Even though the Trump administration is ramping up the rhetoric to sanction China, protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy is not one of the United States’ core interests. In contrast, having control over Hong Kong is China’s core interest. Beijing would rather make concessions over other disputes with Washington in exchange for claiming victory in Hong Kong for its internal propaganda.
Britain, the co-signer of the Joint Declaration for Hong Kong’s handover, is arguably most entitled to denounce Beijing’s violation, which would give mandates to the United States to act. But Beijing is convinced that Britain, not as powerful as it used to be, will not make such a move. Beijing’s recent plans to withdraw businesses from the United States and list them in the London stock market is a move to place a wedge between the two powers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism and his harsh stance against U.S. allies also strengthens Beijing’s conviction that the West will not follow the United States’ lead.
Beijing’s Divide and Conquer Strategy in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s parliament, the Legislative Council (LegCo), is a major roadblock to Beijing’s control, as demonstrated twice since the handover — in 2003 when the national security law was first introduced and in 2019 with the anti-extradition legislation that sparked city-wide protests. In both setbacks, Beijing lost control when moderate pro-establishment legislators broke away from the party line in the face of public outcry. As the September LegCo election approaches, the last thing Beijing wants is for the election to become a de facto referendum on the single issue of the national security law, which could result in another landslide win for the democratic parties. The law would be untenable to the international community if it’s opposed by both pro-democracy voters, which according to polls account for 60 percent of the votes, and moderate pro-establishment voters.
The moderates, despite their reluctance to embrace hardline rule in Hong Kong, differ from the more militant faction within the non-establishment camp in that the former rejects the so-called “mutual destruction” option, which risks Hong Kong’s special trade status — its economic lifeline — as a bargaining tactic to force Beijing to back off. Now that Washington is considering withdrawing Hong Kong’s privileges, the possibility of mutual destruction is becoming real. As Beijing has been promoting a narrative that all supporters of the protest movement’s “Five Demands” are bringing about mutual destruction, Beijing hopes the moderates, in fear of losing their financial assets, might turn toward the establishment.
On the other hand, the pro-democracy camp is at risk of breaking apart. Moderate pro-democracy supporters have been going to rallies to keep up with the political momentum. However, marches with more than a million participants would be impossible under the current oppressive environment. For example, the authorities abuse COVID-19 social distancing measures to suppress rallies, permits for peaceful protests are increasingly difficult to obtain, pro-establishment businesses heavily censored the social media activities of employees, and outspoken individuals are often cyberbullied.
Without support from the moderates, some within the pro-democracy camp may radicalize, as Beijing expects. The radicalization would fit Beijing’s tactic of painting protests as separatism and terrorism, justifying the imposition of the national security law. The trajectory would be similar to Beijing’s handling of the 1959 Tibetan “riots,” during which Mao Zedong’s directive was “the more chaotic the scene, the better.”
The Nationalistic Agenda to Divert Domestic Attention
But after all, to Beijing, Hong Kong is not just Hong Kong. In the wake of the pandemic, Beijing urgently needs to uphold nationalism to divert unwanted attention from its economic crisis. That includes a global propaganda campaign to promote its triumph over COVID-19. Upgrading the Hong Kong protests to a national security issue — as a battle against foreign interference to complete the “reunification with Hong Kong” — best suits the nationalist atmosphere. The all-time low sense of belonging with China among the new generation in Hong Kong further justifies a strong-arm approach. The success of the strategy would offer a way to reunite with Taiwan, which would consolidate Xi’s leadership within the Communist Party.
Also, including the Hong Kong issue as part of the national agenda means that the Hong Kong government, which has already lost its will to govern, will dance to Beijing’s tunes.
This comprehensive crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil society is unprecedented. Beijing believes that the heavy-handed approach would pervade Hong Kong with a sense of powerlessness and bring it to its knees. As long as the international response is limited, the execution of the national security law, according to Chairman Mao’s “theory of contradiction,” will follow a script of “a soft hand” and “a firm hand.” That is, after its imposition, the law will initially apply restraint and be used only on individuals to set a stern example, so that the general public would feel as if the law does not impact them at all and property and stock prices would not fall. Gradually and subtly, if the realist formula of Beijing works, the “second reunification” could become a self-proclaimed success story for Beijing’s propaganda.
However, Beijing’s evaluations are not foolproof. Any single miscalculation could lead to a contradictory outcome for the People’s Republic of China. Is it really prepared?
▶️ 國安法:中國的現實主義框架
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjhRbV8qTgo
⏺ 中美夏威夷峰會
https://www.patreon.com/posts/38378214
economic impact of financial crisis 在 Chapter 13: Financial Crises: Causes and Consequences 的推薦與評價
As noted above, financial panics and the de-leveraging that often occur after them can wreak havoc on the real economy by decreasing the volume of loans, ... ... <看更多>